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Insights


User Manual

Insights: The Complete User Guide

Insights is the quantitative engine of the OpenTrades platform. While the Journal tells you what happened, Insights explains why it happened and predicts what might happen next. This module utilizes institutional-grade algorithms to analyze your trading behavior, stress-test your strategy against random variables, and separate your actual skill ("Alpha") from broad market performance.

  • Access Level: Pro Plan
  • Data Requirement: A minimum of 5 logged trades is required to unlock predictive modeling.

1. Monte Carlo Simulation

The Monte Carlo Simulation is a risk management tool that projects potential future outcomes for your account. Instead of assuming your performance will be linear, this engine randomizes your historical data to create a "probability cloud."

How It Works

The system takes your historical Win Rate and Average Win/Loss Ratio and runs 20 separate simulations of your next 50 trades.

Key Metrics

  • Equity Paths: 20 distinct lines. Green lines represent profitable trajectories; red lines represent drawdowns.
  • Ruin Probability: The statistical likelihood of your account hitting a "ruin point" (extreme drawdown) within the next 50 trades. Goal: 0%.

2. Psychological Profiling (Tilt Detection)

Trading is 90% psychology. The Tilt Detection engine analyzes your execution timestamps to identify emotional trading patterns that often lead to significant losses.

Revenge Trading Analysis

The algorithm scans for "Revenge Trading"—defined as entering a new trade less than 5 minutes after closing a losing position.

Revenge Score

Classifies discipline from LOW (good reset time) to HIGH RISK (frequent chasing).

The Bar

Visual progress bar showing the percentage of your total trades that fit the "revenge" criteria.

Loss Sensitivity

This section visualizes your "Red Days." It measures the volatility of your P&L specifically during losing streaks to see if you spiral when trading goes poorly.

3. Market Attribution

Are you a genius, or is it just a bull market? The Attribution panel benchmarks your performance against the S&P 500 (SPY) to isolate your true edge.

Metric Definition
Alpha (Skill) The return generated purely by your selection/timing, independent of market movement.
Beta (Correlation) Measures correlation to the market.
> 1.0: High Volatility.
0: Market Neutral.
< 0: Inverse Correlation.
SPY Return The benchmark return of the S&P 500 during the same period.

4. Efficiency Frontier

The Efficiency Frontier is a scatter plot designed to optimize your "Time vs. Money" ratio. It plots every trade based on Duration (X-Axis) vs Net Profit (Y-Axis).

Top-Left Quadrant (The Gold Zone)

Trades that were quick and highly profitable. This is where your edge is strongest.

Bottom-Right Quadrant (The Slog)

Trades that took a long time and resulted in losses. These are "opportunity cost" drains that should be eliminated.

5. Running Simulations

To ensure your predictive data is current:

  1. Import any new trades via the Journal or Broker Sync.
  2. Navigate to the Insights page.
  3. Click the Run Simulation button in the top right corner. This forces the algorithms to re-calculate your probabilities based on the latest dataset.